Analysis: NFL is still a passing league despite early rise in running

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The NFL isn’t going back to old-school, smashmouth running football.

Even though rushing yards are up and passing numbers are down over the first three weeks of the season, it’s too soon to call it a new trend.

“It’s still early with the sample size,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said. “But it is something that we looked into because it is noticeable, and it is a really big difference. But we’ll continue to monitor that and what we are trying to do, though, is be efficient on offense. Hit your explosive plays. Take care of the football. Those things will never change. Not give up sacks.”

NFL teams are averaging 119.5 yards rushing per game, up from 112.7 last season. But the league average was 121.6 yards per game in 2022. Teams actually aren’t running more; they’re just having more success. Average rushing attempts per team per game this season going into Week 4 is 26.9 vs. 26.8 last year.

Twenty players are on pace for 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Twelve players accomplished that feat in 2023, down from 16 in 2022. There were only seven in 2021, the first year the NFL went to 17 games in the regular season.

Five teams are averaging 150 yards rushing per game and 13 are averaging 125. Only the Baltimore Ravens were above 150 in 2023 and nine teams averaged 125.

One reason why running backs are having better success is that more defenses are geared toward stopping the pass. They use lighter, more athletic linebackers and play two-high safeties. Offenses can be physical against those defensive sets and attack on the ground.

“You always try to keep defenses honest and they’re doing the same thing back to you, so it’s a little bit of a cat-and-mouse game on the number of people in the box,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “It’s (the run game) been productive, so we’ve got good, positive yards from it.”

Even with Patrick Mahomes under center, Kansas City is only 12th in passing and 15th in rushing this season.

Overall, teams are averaging 201.2 yards passing per game, down from 218.9 last year. It’s the fewest yards since 2003 when the season average was 200.4.

Seventeen teams are averaging 200 yards passing per game, down from 22 last season. Ten teams are averaging 225, down from 16 last year. Only the Cowboys and 49ers are above 250 yards per game. Five teams reached that total last season.

Once defenses adjust and start to take away the run again, passing yards should increase.

“I do think that the sample size is small right now but there’s been a shift,” Titans coach Brian Callahan said of the run-pass ratio. “I think statistically, as you look at it, teams are more intently running the football than maybe they were two years ago. So yeah, I think you’re seeing a slight shift in process because it’s hard to throw the ball all over the place against some of these defenses and how they play, and they make you earn it and they put a lot on the quarterback to be able to complete seven, eight balls a drive for six to nine drives a game.

“We all understand the philosophy of what that means, and so I think the run game is something that is probably more in vogue now at this early part of the season than it was the last couple of years. I think the numbers would bear that out.”

Another reason why passing numbers are down beyond defensive strategy is the inexperience of quarterbacks. The average age of starting QBs in Week 1 was 27.6, the youngest during the Super Bowl era. In 2020, the average age was 29.5. Since then, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger have retired.

Plus, injuries may have contributed to the decline in passing so far. Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, who led the NFL in yards passing, has missed one start. Green Bay’s Jordan Love has missed two games. Pittsburgh’s Russell Wilson hasn’t played.

NFL teams are paying quarterbacks a ton of money — Dak Prescott makes $60 million per season with Dallas and 15 others are earning at least $40 million — to win games throwing the football. Wide receivers are getting paid — 22 are earning at least $20 million per season — to catch passes and make big plays. It’s a passing league.

The numbers will increase. It’s just a matter of time.

Prescott (221) and Daniel Jones (281 yards) combined for 502 yards passing on Thursday night in the Cowboys’ 20-15 win over the Giants. The two teams totaled 106 yards rushing.