Gaza ceasefire talks resume in Doha, but ‘no breakthrough’ expected

Israel’s Mossad spy chief and the CIA director are in Doha for talks in a bid to reach a ceasefire deal, but analysts say a breakthrough is unlikely.

Doha, Qatar – Israel’s Mossad spy chief and the CIA director have travelled to the Qatari capital, Doha, to attend the first high-level talks since ceasefire efforts aimed at ending the war in Gaza broke down in August.

David Barnea and William Burns are expected to meet Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani to try to revive talks after the killing of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar on October 16.

Families of captives taken from Israel to Gaza have also built pressure on the Israeli government to sign a deal to secure the release of their relatives.

Nearly 100 captives still remain in Gaza as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rebuffed talks and escalated military operations. He has faced months of protests demanding a deal to bring back the captives.

On Sunday, Israeli protesters interrupted him, shouting ‘”shame on you”, as he was speaking at a memorial for the victims of the October 7, 2023, attacks. At least 1,100 people were killed in the attacks led by Hamas.

The Qatari prime minister said his country has recently “re-engaged” with Hamas leaders in Doha since Sinwar was killed. Israel also killed the main Hamas negotiator Ismail Haniyeh in July while he was visiting Tehran.

“As long as Israel sticks to its definition of success, there will be no peaceful release of hostages,” said Sultan Barakat, a professor of public policy at Qatar Foundation’s Hamad Bin Khalifa University and an honorary professor at the University of York.

“The careful calibration has sadly moved to avoiding the spread of a regional conflict as a result of the Israel and Iran confrontation and not to ending the genocide.”

On Sunday, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said military operations alone are not sufficient to achieve the country’s war goals.

“In carrying out our moral and ethical duty to return the hostages to their homes, painful compromises are required,” he said at a state ceremony to honour the soldiers killed in the conflict.

According to Israeli media, Barnea, the Mossad chief, is travelling with a commitment to “goodwill” but lacks a mandate regarding a change in the status of the Israeli takeover of the Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors in Gaza. Netanyahu wants control of these two corridors – the Philadelphi on the border with Egypt and the Netzarim, which splits northern and southern Gaza.

‘Not ready to make any concessions’

Hamas sources said its demands are firm for a complete withdrawal of the Israeli military from the entire Gaza Strip, the release of Palestinian prisoners jailed in Israel, aid deliveries to all of Gaza and an end to the war.

Luciano Zaccara, an adjunct associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, said he isn’t “optimistic about a breakthrough”.

Egypt and Qatar have been mediating between Israel and Hamas, which led to the only breakthrough in November when a prisoner swap deal led to the release of about 100 Israeli captives in exchange for about 240 Palestinian prisoners.

Analysts said they believe this round of talks most likely will result in a holding pattern just days before the US elections.

In addition to a much trumpeted plan unveiled by US President Joe Biden in May, another proposal that includes a temporary ceasefire and aid deliveries in exchange for releasing several Israeli captives in Gaza is also being discussed.

Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet internal security service, already went to Cairo to discuss the proposal with Egyptian officials last week.

Egypt on Sunday proposed a two-day ceasefire in Gaza that would entail an exchange of four Israeli captives for some Palestinian prisoners.

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said on Sunday that talks should resume within 10 days of implementing the temporary ceasefire to try to reach a permanent one.

The new head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, Hassan Mahmoud Rashad, has already held a meeting with Hamas deputy chief Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo.

Before the talks, there was already opposition from Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. The far-right leaders have called temporary proposals as “a gift to Hamas while Israel is in a momentum”.

But there are supporters of the proposal as the fighting has dragged on for more than a year and the pressure from the captives’ families is mounting.

Among the proponents of a deal to release some captives are Gallant, Transportation Minister Miri Regev, Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Deputy Prime Minister Yariv Levin.