Turkish firms ‘paying the bill’ as political crisis roils economy

Turmoil unleashed by the arrest of Turkey’s leading opposition figure last week has sent shockwaves through the private sector, forcing companies to rethink strategy and dig in for a period of uncertainty and potential economic instability.

The detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who leads long-serving President Tayyip Erdogan in some polls, has provoked the largest anti-government protests in a decade, leading to mass arrests and international condemnation.

The move also sent the lira currency to a record low, fuelling a sell-off of Turkish assets that has destabilised company balance sheets and driven up already high borrowing costs.

“The industrialists now have to pay the bill for a crisis they did not cause,” said Seref Fayat, chairman of System Denim, which manufactures garments for leading Western brands and exports them to Europe and the United States.

Fayat, who also heads a garment industry lobby group, said his credit costs have spiked due to the market turmoil.

He had been drawing up budgets for a second-half expansion of his business in anticipation of an expected rebound in customer demand from Europe.

“We immediately shelved these plans following the latest developments,” he said.

The lira has recovered somewhat after touching a record low of 42 to the dollar, but only after the central bank stepped in to prop up the currency.

And businesses worry more pain is on the way.

Expectations of declining inflation and lower interest rates following the adoption of an orthodox economic programme that had promised Turks future relief after years of soaring prices and currency crashes, now seem in doubt.

In an unscheduled meeting last week, the central bank raised its overnight lending rate by two percentage points to 46%.

Morgan Stanley now forecasts any cuts to the central bank’s policy rate will be shelved until June. And Goldman Sachs said it expected a hike in the policy rate by 350 basis points.

“The latest developments will affect companies’ investment expenditures the most,” Hakan Kara, a former central bank chief economist now on faculty at Bilkent University in Ankara, said on X, pointing out that investment had already been slowing.

“This will probably become even more apparent in the short-term.” The government has said the recent economic turmoil would be limited and temporary. But some company officials worry the crisis may only be beginning.

Elections are set for 2028 when Erdogan, who has dominated Turkish politics for more than two decades, will reach his term limit.

Many, however, see the arrest of Imamoglu, who was jailed on Sunday pending trial for graft, as an early indication he could seek to remain in power, either through an early election or constitutional changes that would likely face public opposition.

Mehmet Buyukeksi, a board member at Ziylan, which operates in retail and real estate, said expectations of a more positive business outlook in Turkey based on government efforts to right the economy as well as strengthening demand were now less certain.

Improvements, including lower borrowing costs, that he had been expecting to see in July, he is now pushing back to September, he said.

And there are other knock-on effects.

One company official said some firms were carrying out human resources risk assessments, worried that they could face blowback if their employees participate in protests or share political content on social media.

Some conglomerates are reevaluating their risks in terms of exchange rates, inflation, funding costs and are significantly increasing the likelihood of negative impacts in their assessments, the company official said.

And a mergers and acquisitions consultant said that, while some foreign firms might look past criticisms that the Turkish government’s actions are growing increasingly undemocratic, few will pour investment into an economically fraught environment.

“Everyone will re-do their calculations and books,” said Fikret Kaya, the general manager of plastics and industrial equipment manufacturer Kayalar.

“We have had to make monthly evaluations that we used to make quarterly. I think every company needs to make a plan.”