Portuguese PM’s party set to win general election, fall short of majority

Portugal’s ruling centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD) is poised to win the most votes in an early parliamentary election, but is short of a full majority, exit polls have shown, paving the way for more political instability in the country.

Sunday’s election, the third in as many years, was called just one year into the minority government’s term after Prime Minister Luis Montenegro failed to win a parliamentary vote of confidence in March when the opposition questioned his integrity over the dealings of his family’s consultancy firm.

Montenegro has denied any wrongdoing, and most opinion polls showed that voters have dismissed the opposition’s criticism.

The election, also dominated by issues such as housing and immigration, follows a decade of fragile governments. And the only one of those governments to have a parliamentary majority collapsed halfway through its term last year.

Exit polls published by the three main television channels – SIC, RTP and TVI – put Montenegro’s AD as receiving between 29 percent and 35.1 percent of the vote, garnering the biggest share but again no parliamentary majority, similar to what happened in the previous election in March 2024.

Outside the polling station where Montenegro voted in the northern city of Espinho, Irene Medeiros, 77, told Reuters the “best candidate must win”, but that she feared more uncertainty ahead.

According to the exit polls, Montenegro’s main rival, the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), garnered between 19.4 percent and 26 percent of the vote, nearly tied with the far-right Chega party’s 19.5 percent to 25.5 percent share, which is higher than the 18 percent it won in 2024. Montenegro has refused to make any deals with Chega.

With that tally, the DA could get between 85 and 96 seats, short of the 116 needed for a majority in Portugal’s 230-seat parliament. It could form a minority government or forge partnerships with smaller parties to obtain a majority.

Most official results are expected by midnight (23:00 GMT).