Will Syria normalise relations with Israel?

Normalisation might be a step too far, but a return to a peace deal may be in sight.

After nearly 14 years of war in Syria, the new government is resetting its regional relations, and a lot of focus is on what will happen with Israel.

There are reports of talks between Syria and Israel, with timelines even being floated for potential normalisation between the two countries, which have technically been at war since the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.

Here’s what you need to know about possible normalisation between Syria and Israel:

Syria and Israel have held direct talks, according to Israeli media, about potentially entering into a normalisation agreement.

Communication between the two states has reportedly been facilitated by the United Arab Emirates, which established a backchannel for contact.

Any agreement would likely be an extension of the Abraham Accords, an agreement brokered by the United States between some Arab states and Israel.

The Abraham Accords were a top-down approach by Donald Trump during his first term as US president to get Arab states to formalise relations with Israel.

They were signed in August and September 2020 by the UAE and Bahrain, and soon followed by Sudan and Morocco.

Possibly down the road, analysts say, but right now it would be nearly impossible, according to Syrian writer and author Robin Yassin-Kassab.

There is a deep enmity between Syria and Israel, which heightened during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war and Israel’s occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.

Israeli Defence Minister Gideon Saar said his country would insist on its occupation of the Golan Heights in any deal with Syria, and the Israeli army has gone deeper into the Golan, occupying homes and expelling people from the area.

What has happened so far?

Many Syrians would oppose giving up the Golan to Israel, according to analysts. Still, many might welcome common-sense negotiations.

“Syrians are split … because on the one hand people are exhausted, everyone recognises Syria cannot defend itself or fight Israel … so it’s good [al-Sharaa’s] negotiating,” Yassin-Kassab said, adding that a return to an agreement like the 1974 ceasefire is the most realistic option.

Israel attacked Syria repeatedly, destroying much of its military infrastructure and seizing Syrian territory near the border with Syria’s Golan Heights.

Syria would likely ask for Israel to withdraw from the newly occupied area under a new non-aggression deal, though reports say the Golan Heights have not yet been discussed.

In recent days, Israeli officials have said they are open to a deal with Syria, and Netanyahu reportedly asked US Special Envoy Tom Barrack to help negotiate one.

Israel’s National Security Council head, Tzachi Hanegbi, has reportedly been overseeing discussions with Syrian officials. The talks include a US presence and are in “advanced stages”, according to senior Israeli officials who spoke to The Times of Israel.

Figures close to al-Sharaa are reportedly asking for an end to Israeli aggression without Syria having to accept full normalisation, Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar reported.

Syria wants the Israeli attacks on Syrian territory to cease.

There are concerns over Israel’s expanded occupation of the Golan Heights among many Syrians; however, it’s unclear if al-Sharaa’s government will demand the return of the occupied parts.

Syria would, however, want Israel to pull out of the Golan proper and the parts it occupied over the last year.

Israel also threatened the new Syrian government not to deploy soldiers south of Damascus, a region near its border with Israel.