What if… the US stopped supporting Israel tomorrow?

Half of US voters believe Israel is committing genocide and six in 10 oppose further military aid, polls suggest.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been able to rely on the United States’ absolute backing throughout his country’s war on Gaza.

While the administration of former US President Joe Biden may have occasionally expressed discomfort over the crises it was enabling in Gaza, the Donald Trump administration has yet to exhibit similar qualms, even going so far in February as to suggest that all of Gaza’s population be ethnically cleansed.

US support has been vital to Israel’s war machine, providing weapons that helped Israel kill more than 63,000 people in Gaza. Diplomatically, it uses its veto on the UN Security Council to block demands for a ceasefire in Gaza, despite the mounting death toll.

It also supported Israel in the International Court of Justice, where Israel is accused of genocide, and sanctioned International Criminal Court members who issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on charges of war crimes.

The US’ potential complicity in what many states and agencies recognise as a genocide has been called out by rights groups, who call on it to halt its support for Israel.

But what if it did? What would happen if the US ended all support for Israel tomorrow?

We asked four experts what they think: Hamze Attar, a defence analyst; Ori Goldberg, an Israeli political scientist; HA Hellyer, senior fellow at the Royal United Service Institute and Center for American Progress; and Daniel Levy, a former Israeli government adviser.

“I get the sense that many of the Western states that originally supported Israel are now feeling particularly helpless and are now really just willing Israel’s downfall upon it. For many, even Germany, the post-war bond that has tied them to Israel has become so frayed it probably won’t hold without the US.

“I think if you suddenly removed the US from the equation, you’d be removing the one largest single [impediment] to some kind of settlement there’s been.

“Israel’s imperative for genuinely integrating itself into the region will always be a second- or third-level priority, because American support underwrites its ability to act with impunity, as we’ve seen vis-a-vis the Palestinians, the Lebanese, and the Syrians and so on.

“This idea that Israel is one step away from being attacked just isn’t the case and, many would argue, hasn’t been the case for decades.

What would happen internationally?

“The Syrian army isn’t currently holding off from counter-attacking Israel because of the US. They’re holding off from attacking because they’re not interested in more wars, they know they’d face massive resistance; the same is true for others.” – HA Hellyer

“Increasingly, Israel has been dependent on the high-tech weapons sector, a lot of which the US supports, in terms of aid as well as almost limitless R&D opportunities.

“But Israel also relies economically on just having the US in its corner, like a coach waiting with the towel [loan guarantees and other support mechanisms].

“I think the overnight loss of US support would make things difficult, but it wouldn’t be immediate, until we got to see massive layoffs in the Big Tech companies, and the military begin to falter.” – Ori Goldberg

“Not as much as you think. Israel’s settler community is already high on its own stash. They’re going to continue with what they see as their God-given mission, whatever happens.

“Netanyahu would probably continue, too. He’s not a magician. Much of what he says and does is just reflective of what much of Israeli society thinks anyway.

“Sure, he’d reframe it. He could say that the reason we attacked Gaza was so that we’d never have to be dependent on another state again, but I think he’d probably survive.” – Ori Goldberg

“America really has been the gift that keeps on giving, especially to the Israeli right. If a Democrat is in power, they can say: ‘Look how well we’re managing them.’

“And if someone like Trump is in power, they can say: ‘Look, we must be doing something right: The US agrees with us.’ Either way, they gain legitimacy. Without the US, that’s not really there.

“In terms of its internal politics and its treatment of Palestinians, the US also gives Israel absolute impunity. For instance, its politicians can wage a genocidal war on Gaza or cheer on settlements with no apparent cost.