Why developed countries must prevent an electricity crunch

A giant battery sits on top of northern Europe. That battery is called Norway. But as the Nordic nation’s surplus electricity runs down, its neighbours face the loss of dependable spare capacity.

And that story is being repeated from the UK to Australia, as the environmental mantra of “electrify everything” collides with challenges to new power plants, grids and the obsolescence of legacy facilities.

There are four types of persistent international electricity shortfalls. The first comes in conflict-prone, or politically unstable countries, where building sufficient new generating capacity and maintaining the electricity grid is very difficult.

The Middle East region knows well the problems of Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, where people have increasingly turned to small-scale solar panels to help meet household needs.

South Africa is a special case. Corruption, theft, political capture of the electricity sector and a long-running failure to refurbish or replace coal-fired power stations have led to a long-running and worsening electricity crisis that has dragged down the continent’s second-largest economy.

Andre de Ruyter, the former chief executive of state utility Eskom, who championed renewables, was sacked in February after alleging politically-linked crime syndicates had infiltrated the company. He also survived an apparent attempt to poison him with cyanide in his coffee.

In this region, political deadlock in Kuwait has prevented sufficient investment in new gas or renewable power stations, despite the country’s enviable solar and wind resources.

The country has an ambitious pipeline of projects, including the 1.1 gigawatt Shagaya Al Dabdaba solar farm, but it has to move quickly.

Last August, peak demand reached nearly 17 gigawatts, and maximum generating capacity is only at about 18 gigawatts, having fallen since 2021.

The second is in lower-income countries, where financial instability, below-cost electricity tariffs, high costs of capital, unreliable payment and other such problems deter investors.

Much attention at Cop28 was devoted to bringing investment in renewable energy to Africa in particular, where many people still lack access to modern energy systems.

The other two cases are less obvious, but more important for the health of the global economy and the low-carbon transition.