Moscow concert hall attack: Why is ISIL targeting Russia?

More than 115 people have been killed and some 120 injured in a deadly Moscow attack claimed by an ISIL affiliate.

More than 115 people have been killed and nearly 120 others were injured following a brazen attack on concertgoers at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall before a performance by a Soviet-era rock band on Friday.

Assailants dressed in camouflage uniforms opened fire and reportedly threw explosive devices inside the concert venue, which was left in flames with its roof collapsing after the deadly attack.

Eleven people had been detained, including four people directly involved in the armed assault, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported early on Saturday.

ISIL’s Afghan branch – also known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province, ISKP (ISIS-K) – has claimed responsibility for the attack and United States officials have confirmed the authenticity of that claim, according to the Reuters news agency.

Here is what we know about the group and their possible motive for the Moscow attack.

The group (also known as ISIS-K) remains one of the most active affiliates of ISIL and takes its title from an ancient caliphate in the region that once encompassed areas of Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan and Turkmenistan.

Murat Aslan, a military analyst and former Turkish army colonel, said ISIL’s Afghanistan affiliate is known for its “radical and tough methodologies”.

“I think their ideology inspires them in terms of selecting targets. First of all, Russia is in Syria and fighting against Daesh [ISIL] like the United States. That means they see such countries as hostile,” Aslan told media.

“They are now in Moscow. Previously they were in Iran, and we will see much more attacks, maybe in other capitals,” he added.

Though its membership in Afghanistan is said to have declined since a peak in about 2018, its fighters still pose one of the greatest threats to the Taliban’s authority in Afghanistan.

ISIS-K fighters claimed responsibility for the 2021 attacks outside Kabul airport that left at least 175 civilians dead, killed 13 US soldiers, and many dozens injured.

ISIL’s Afghanistan branch

The ISIL affiliate was previously blamed for carrying out a bloody attack on a maternity ward in Kabul in May 2020 that killed 24 people, including women and infants. In November that same year, the group carried out an attack on Kabul University, killing at least 22 teachers and students.

In September 2022, the group took responsibility for a deadly suicide bombing at the Russian embassy in Kabul.

Defence and security analysts say the group has targeted its propaganda at Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent years over the alleged oppression of Muslims by Russia.

Amira Jadoon, assistant professor at Clemson University in South Carolina and co-author of The Islamic State in Afghanistan and Pakistan: Strategic Alliances and Rivalries, said Russia is seen as a key opponent of ISIL, and Moscow has become a focus of ISIS-K’s “extensive propaganda war”.

“Russia’s engagement in the global fight against ISIS and its affiliates, especially through its military operations in Syria and its efforts to establish connections with the Afghan Taliban – ISIS-K’s rival – marks Russia as a key adversary for ISIS/ISIS-K,” Jadoon told media.

Should the Moscow attack be “definitely attributed” to ISIS-K, Jadoon said, the group hopes to win support and advance “its goal to evolve into a terrorist organisation with global influence” by demonstrating that it can launch attacks within Russian territory.

“ISK has consistently demonstrated its ambition to evolve into a formidable regional entity…. By directing its aggression towards nations such as Iran and Russia, ISK not only confronts regional heavyweights but also underscores its political relevance and operational reach on the global stage,” Jadoon said.

Kabir Taneja, a fellow at the Strategic Studies programme of the Observer Research Foundation – a think tank based in New Delhi, India – told media that Russia is seen by ISIL and its affiliates as “a crusading power against Muslims”.

“Russia has been a target for ISIS and not just ISKP (ISIS-K) from the beginning,” Taneja, author of the book The ISIS Peril, said.

“ISKP attacked [the] Russian embassy in Kabul in 2022, and over the months Russian security agencies have upped their efforts to clamp down on pro-ISIS ecosystems both in Russia and around its borders, specifically Central Asia and the Caucusus,” he said.

In early March, Russia’s Federal Security Service, better known as the FSB, said it had thwarted an ISIL plan to attack a Moscow synagogue.