Gaza war: What does victory look like for the US and Israel?

After more than seven months of war, analysts say Israel’s aims may be to destroy Gaza and displace its population.

Washington, DC – Each day, the images emerging from Gaza remain largely the same: Israeli bombs killing civilians. Palestinians fleeing their homes and makeshift shelters. Hamas targetting Israeli forces and posting the footage online.

After nearly 230 days of fighting, experts say Israel’s war in Gaza shows no sign of ending soon. So what is Israel trying to achieve? And do its objectives align with those of its closest ally, the United States?

Israel has said it is seeking an “absolute victory” over Hamas, as it continues to receive billions of dollars in unconditional military aid from the US.

But the country has faced criticism, including from allies, for its apparent lack of a long-term strategy in Gaza, beyond unleashing firepower on the Palestinian enclave.

To some experts, though, the destruction and killings are part of the objective. They say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to wage an endless war to stay in power while deepening Palestinian suffering.

And while the US government has said it seeks to end the conflict, Washington is fuelling the Israeli plans by maintaining its “ironclad” support for Israel, analysts say.

“What Israel is looking to achieve is simply erasure and expulsion. That’s what they want here. And they’ve been blunt about this,” said Osamah Khalil, a history professor at Syracuse University.

While Netanyahu has said Israel has “no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population”, high-level members of his government have suggested otherwise.

Some far-right Israeli ministers have openly called for displacing Palestinians from Gaza. Other officials have urged the “voluntary migration” of the territory’s residents. And last year, the newspaper Israel Hayom reported that Netanyahu tapped one of his aides to work on a plan to “thin out” the population in Gaza.

Egypt — the only country that borders Gaza other than Israel — has vehemently opposed the mass displacement of Palestinians, which experts point out would amount to ethnic cleansing.

But Khalil said Israel’s plans for the mass displacement of Palestinians have not changed. If anything, the ongoing offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah has heightened the prospect, given that many residents sheltering there have already fled bloodshed and bombing in the north.

And if the Israeli government fails to expel the Palestinians, Khalil believes it will instead try to contain most of Gaza’s population in small areas, preventing them from returning home and subjecting them to bombing, surveillance, starvation and disease.

‘A status quo’

“It’s a status quo that seems to be sustainable for lots of actors for a pretty long period of time,” he said.

Matthew Duss, the executive vice president at the Center for International Policy, a US-based think tank, also said the conflict risks turning into a protracted one.

He added that Israel’s lack of strategy in Gaza could have “catastrophic” consequences for Palestinians, the US and Israel itself.

“You have a war of vengeance being carried out by a state that has the full backing of the global superpower who protects it from any consequences,” Duss told media.

In the US, meanwhile, the administration of President Joe Biden has articulated a complex vision for the war and its outcome.

Washington says it backs Israel’s push to eliminate Hamas’s military capabilities. It is also seeking a ceasefire deal that would see a temporary halt in the fighting, the release of Israeli captives and a surge in humanitarian aid to Gaza.

At the same time, Biden officials have pursued an agreement to establish diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which they say would boost the prospects of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

As for Gaza, the US says the territory should ultimately be under the governance of a “reformed” Palestinian Authority (PA).

That US plan faces a mountain of hurdles, however. Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected the prospect of establishing a Palestinian state. Israeli leaders also oppose the return of the PA to Gaza.