The 2024 US election year has been one of the most tumultuous on record. The past two months have seen a shockingly lacklustre performance from President Joe Biden on the debate stage and his subsequent withdrawal from the ticket, an assassination attempt on former President and current Republican nominee Donald Trump, and the elevation of Vice President Kamala Harris to the Democratic nomination. The Harris campaign now has three months to sell its vision to the American people.
While domestic economic pressures will likely be the main focus of US voters in the election, the question of how America’s 47th president will dictate foreign policy will also be critical – both for Americans and all other peoples of the world who will be directly or indirectly affected by the new administration’s policies. Indeed, the next administration will have its hands full on the world stage, with ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza and growing US-China competition.
Looking towards the Middle East, Harris’s selection of Tim Walz as her running mate locks in the missing piece on her ticket and provides further insight into what her administration could mean for the region. A sparse record on foreign policy makes it difficult to ascertain Harris and Walz’s exact stances on various critical issues. Still, we have enough clues to paint a picture of their future Middle East policy which, despite some nuances, looks like it would mirror that of President Biden.
Harris’s carefully crafted “As Israel defends itself, it matters how” approach to Israel’s war on Gaza since October 7 and her recent declaration of “I will not be silent [on suffering in Gaza]” in the wake of Netanyahu’s Washington, DC, visit have created some distance between her views on the conflict versus those of Biden in the eyes of American voters. Reports that the National Security Council had to “tone down” her language during a speech delivered in March, in which she referred to the conditions in Gaza as “inhumane” and directed Israel to increase the flow of aid, further highlighted this distinction.
Although Harris has drawn a contrast with Biden through her slightly tougher rhetoric towards Israel on the growing death toll in Gaza and even did not preside over Netanyahu’s address to Congress on July 24, these choices do not hint at a deviation from ongoing, mainstream Democratic policy. After all, despite skipping his speech at Congress, Harris had a one-on-one meeting with the Israeli prime minister the next day, and publicly reaffirmed her ongoing support for Israel. In a campaign rally this week, Harris was interrupted by individuals protesting the war in Gaza, which she deflected from and said, “if you want Donald Trump to win then say that. Otherwise I’m speaking”. Her response was telling, and may indicate how she does not want the Gaza war to be one of the core issues of the campaign.
Regarding other US interests and ongoing tensions in the Middle East, there is further ambiguity about how Harris might respond as president. During her Senate tenure, Harris was a consistent voter against arms sales to Saudi Arabia and US support for the Saudi-led coalitions in the Yemeni civil war. In 2020, she stated that the Saudis have been strong partners in counterterror efforts, but the US must re-evaluate their relationship “to stand up for American values and interests”.
Serving as vice president during Biden’s attempts to secure normalisation between Tel Aviv and Riyadh, her position shifted, partly in response to the growing Chinese and Russian influence across the region. Her presidential goals would likely include strengthening US-Saudi security relations and collaborating with the kingdom on technology and energy transition initiatives.
In the context of the ongoing escalation between Iran and Israel following Israel’s recent assassinations of top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, Harris’s Iran policy would likely entail a delicate balancing act. During her 2020 presidential election campaign, Harris stated that the US needs to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Given Biden’s unsuccessful attempt to resuscitate the deal following the Trump administration’s controversial 2018 withdrawal and the 2020 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani – both of which Harris deemed “reckless” – her prospects of securing a new nuclear agreement with Iran have diminished.
Harris’s announcement of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her pick for vice president, a role primarily regarded as titular, only strengthens the perception that she plans to pursue a Middle East policy based on mainstream Democratic positions if elected president.
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