Coface revises global GDP forecast to around 2%

Inayat-ur-Rahman, Business Editor

Coface, a global leader in trade credit insurance, debt collection, and business information services, has revised the global GDP growth forecast to around 2 per cent in 2025 due to the US tariffs.

Coface successfully concluded its exclusive conference in Dubai on Tuesday. The event convened leading voices from the financial, insurance, and technology sectors for an insightful discussion on the challenges and opportunities shaping global trade and risk management in 2025.

Jean-Christophe Caffet, Coface Group Chief Economist told Gulf Today that the main concept behind hosting the conference is to educate the world about the impacts of US tariffs on the world economy. He predicted that world economy will grow around 2 per cent this year lowering the previous forecast of 2.4 per cent due to US tariffs.

He urged different countries of the world to adopt the policy of negotiations and refrain from retaliation strategy in order to avoid the worst recession.

He mentioned that “the ‘great moderation’, which is the economic golden age we have been experiencing over the last 30 years, characterized by robust economic growth, low inflation, and weak volatility, is definitely over.

“The current trade war will lead to significant supply chain disruptions, lower growth, and higher inflation, hence to a more stagflationary and volatile environment. Higher for longer interest rates remain a base case. Except, obviously, if something breaks in the financial sector. Corporate insolvencies are up, driven up by pressures on operating margins and a rise in interest expenses. They should continue increasing in the coming quarters, if not years”.

“The Country Risk Conference is Coface’s flagship event, bringing together clients, top executives, brokers, leading business experts, and economists to examine the key risks businesses face today,” said Sandrine Sarikey, CEO Middle East at Coface. “Our goal is to deliver crucial insights into the geopolitical, economic, and technological trends that will shape tomorrow’s business landscape. Through our trade credit insurance, debt collection, and business information services, Coface remains committed to helping companies navigate complex markets with confidence and clarity.”

Senior executives, financial analysts, and regional business leaders attended the conference which addressed the pressing need for robust risk mitigation strategies in the face of economic volatility, geopolitical instability, and supply chain disruptions.

Coface executives shared their findings from the company’s latest economic outlook report, detailing global and regional trends, sector risk assessments, and tailored solutions to support businesses in navigating uncertainty with influential local business people, journalists and trade specialists.