Historic drought and upstream dams slash harvests, threatening food security and reversing years of costly agricultural progress.
Iraq’s ambitious and expensive drive to achieve wheat self-sufficiency is collapsing under the strain of an unprecedented water crisis, forcing the nation back toward import dependency and threatening rural livelihoods.
A severe, multi-year drought—the worst in modern history—combined with drastically reduced water flows from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers is devastating the nation’s breadbasket. After three consecutive years of surplus, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warns this season’s wheat harvest could plummet by 30-50%.
“Iraq is facing one of the most severe droughts observed in decades,” said Salah El Hajj Hassan, the FAO’s Iraq representative. He noted the country’s water reserves have catastrophically dropped from 60 billion cubic meters in 2020 to less than 4 billion today.
A Crisis Compounded by Climate and Neighbors
The disaster exposes Iraq’s acute vulnerability. Ranking fifth globally for climate risk, Iraq’s average temperatures have risen nearly 0.5°C per decade since 2000. Yet, the nation also relies on neighboring Turkey and Iran for 70% of its water supply. The increased use of upstream dams by these countries is a major factor in the current shortage, leading Baghdad to impose strict water rationing.
Costly Gains Reversed
For years, Iraq’s government pursued food security by heavily subsidizing farmers, paying over double the global price for wheat, and promoting modern techniques. This policy built strategic reserves exceeding 6 million tons. Now, those gains are eroding.
In response, the agriculture ministry has slashed river-irrigated wheat cultivation by half for the 2025/26 season, mandated a shift to water-saving irrigation, and banned water-intensive rice cultivation outright. A larger area is allocated for desert farming using groundwater, but this carries its own risks.
“If water extraction continues without scientific study, groundwater reserves will decline,” warned Ammar Abdul-Khaliq, head of the Wells and Groundwater Authority in southern Iraq, noting aquifers in Basra have already fallen 3-5 meters.
Rural Exodus and Economic Threat
The crisis is now a direct threat to stability. The FAO estimates 170,000 people have already been displaced from rural areas due to water scarcity. Farmers like Ma’an Al-Fatlawi in Najaf have been forced to cut their wheat acreage to a fraction of normal and lay off workers.
“We rely on river water,” Al-Fatlawi said, highlighting the lack of alternatives as groundwater in his area is too saline.
With domestic production crashing, analysts like water expert Harry Istepanian warn Iraq must brace for increased imports, budget pressure, and exposure to global food price volatility. The FAO preliminarily forecasts Iraq’s wheat import needs could rise to 2.4 million tons next marketing year.
“Iraq’s water and food security crisis is no longer just an environmental problem; it has immediate economic and security spillovers,” Istepanian said.
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