Israel may look to many like a winner, a de facto hegemon in the Middle East. It has waged war on several fronts simultaneously, dealing deadly blows on its enemies. In parallel, it continues to enjoy much support from various Western constituencies and leaders, particularly those who face real challenges from the hard right in their countries.
But under the surface, Israel is imploding. An international coalition, led by the United States with the participation of Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, is gradually removing Gaza from Israel’s control, as well as pressuring Israel out of its territorial escapades in Syria and Lebanon.
This is being publicly opposed by the Israeli government, but it appears to be carried out with the tacit acceptance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has now realised that he is better served by the threat of war rather than by war itself. This is especially after he failed to accomplish his own “war goals” – the destruction of Hamas and the return of the hostages alive; it seems the Israeli army may have killed many more hostages than initially assumed.
The unconditional support Israel once received from the US and Europe is dwindling, and so is cooperation with Gulf states. The Palestinians, just like the Muslim Brotherhood, were for decades perceived as a greater threat to the regional status quo than the Israelis.
Where Western leaders once competed over who would be quickest to condemn Hamas and commend Israel’s fight for “Western values”, these same leaders are much quieter now that constant evidence of the Israeli genocide is pouring out of Gaza. Even US President Donald Trump has much less to say about Hamas than he once did.
It is clearly difficult for Western leaders to acknowledge that Israel has become an agent of regional chaos. It is much easier to gradually, discretely, remove its levers and make it come to terms with the emerging reality without forcing Israeli leaders to publicly lose face. There is no need to confront Israel directly. It is enough to give it the occasional cold shoulder and to make it wait.
Despite protestations to the contrary, Israel needs international cooperation to attack and occupy in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iran. That is why its operations are gradually shrinking. The Israeli army is now busy “hunting” individuals who once participated in attacks on Israelis, rather than engaging in strategic expansion. These are Israel’s capabilities in this new order.
Israel may be losing on the diplomatic front, too. Hamas is negotiating while the Israeli government is stalling. If this continues, Israel will be faced with a reality it did not actively shape. There is talk, for example, of Israelis being forced to pay for the removal of the rubble that the Israeli army created over more than two years of annihilating Gaza.
While Israel may be on its way to losing its status as a hegemon of the Middle East, Israeli society is devoting all of its considerable energy to internal squabbles “over Israel’s soul” and to intensifying its illegal occupation of Palestinian territory. Israelis are losing their faith in the existence of a world outside Israel’s borders. If there is such a world, many believe, it hates Israel with a passion regardless of its actions.
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