Opposition fighters are closing in on Syria’s capital in a swiftly developing crisis that has taken much of the world by surprise. Syria’s army has abandoned key cities in the west and south with little resistance. Nervous residents in Damascus describe security forces on the streets. The state news agency has been forced to deny rumors that President Bashar Assad has left the country.
Who are these opposition fighters? If they enter Damascus after taking two of Syria’s largest cities, what then? Here’s a look at the stunning reversal of fortune for Assad and his government in just the past 10 days, and what might lie ahead as Syria’s 13-year civil war reignites.
This is the first time that opposition forces have reached the outskirts of the Syrian capital since 2018, when the country’s troops recaptured the area following a yearslong siege.
The approaching fighters are led by the most powerful insurgent group in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, along with an umbrella group of Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army. Both have been entrenched in the northwest. They launched the shock offensive on Nov. 27 with gunmen capturing Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, and the central city of Hama, the fourth largest.
The HTS has its origins in al-Qaida and is considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the United Nations. But the group said in recent years it cut ties with al-Qaida, and experts say HTS has sought to remake itself in recent years by focusing on promoting civilian government in their territory as well as military action.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani told CNN in an exclusive interview Thursday from Syria that the aim of the offensive is to overthrow Assad’s government.
The HTS and Syrian National Army have been allies at times and rivals at times, and their aims might diverge.
The Turkish-backed militias also have an interest in creating a buffer zone near the Turkish border to keep away Kurdish militants at odds with Ankara. Turkey has been a main backer of the fighters seeking to overthrow Assad but more recently has urged reconciliation, and Turkish officials have strongly rejected claims of any involvement in the current offensive.
Whether the HTS and the Syrian National Army will work together if they succeed in overthrowing Assad or turn on each other again is a major question.
While the flash offensive against Syria’s government began in the north, armed opposition groups have also mobilized elsewhere.
The southern areas of Sweida and Daraa have both been taken locally. Sweida is the heartland of Syria’s Druze religious minority and had been the site of regular anti-government protests even after Assad seemingly consolidated his control over the area.
Daraa is a Sunni Muslim area that was widely seen as the cradle of the uprising against Assad’s rule that erupted in 2011. Daraa was recaptured by Syrian government troops in 2018, but rebels remained in some areas. In recent years, Daraa was in a state of uneasy quiet under a Russian-mediated ceasefire deal.
And much of Syria’s east is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led group backed by the United States that in the past has clashed with most other armed groups in the country.
Syria’s government now controls just four of 14 provincial capitals.
Much depends on Assad’s next moves and his forces’ will to fight.
A commander with the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, posted on the Telegram messaging app that opposition forces have started carrying out the “final stage” of their offensive by encircling Damascus.
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Syrian troops have withdrawn from much of the two southern provinces and are sending reinforcements to Homs. If that city is captured, the link would be cut between Damascus, Assad’s seat of power, and the coastal region where he enjoys wide support.
“Homs to the coastal cities will be a very huge red line politically and socially. Politically, if this line is crossed, then we are talking about the end of the entire Syria, the one that we knew in the past,” said a Damascus resident, Anas Joudeh.
Assad appears to be largely on his own as allies Russia and Iran are distracted by other conflicts and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah has been weakened by its war with Israel, now under a fragile ceasefire.
The U.N. special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, is calling for urgent talks in Geneva to ensure an “orderly political transition,” saying the situation is changing by the minute. He met with foreign ministers and senior diplomats from eight key countries including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt, Turkey and Iran on the sidelines of the Doha Summit.
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