US consumer confidence plunges to four-year low

Consumer confidence in the United States has continued its sharp 2025 decline as Americans’ views about their financial futures slumped to a 12-year low, driven by rising anxiety over tariffs and inflation.

The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, the fourth straight monthly decline and its lowest reading since January of 2021. The reading was short of analysts’ expectations for a reading of 94.5, according to a survey by FactSet.

The business group found that the measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell 9.6 points to 65.2.

That’s the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, which The Conference Board says can signal a potential recession in the near future. The proportion of US consumers anticipating a recession remains at a nine-month high, the board reported.

“Consumers’ optimism about future income — which had held up quite strongly in the past few months — largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labour market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board.

US President Donald Trump’s on-and-off-again tariffs have been panned by economists for sowing confusion and uncertainty that they said was making it challenging for businesses to plan ahead, to the detriment of the economy.

Trump on Monday indicated that not all of his threatened duties would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks, but at the same time said tariffs on imported automobiles were coming soon.

“Consumers are rattled,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. “At great personal risk, we will opine that the chaos in Washington has something to do with this. The decline in consumer sentiment since the November election can no longer be written off as a coincidence.”

The fourth straight monthly decline in confidence mirrored a similar deterioration earlier this month in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment measure, which has also erased all the gains notched in the aftermath of Trump’s election victory in November.