US-India relations hit new low despite Trump-Modi bromance: What’s next?

New Delhi, India — When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, many Indian analysts celebrated, arguing that his bonhomie with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi would shield the country from the chaos that the United States president could unleash.

The two leaders had effectively campaigned for each other previously, attending joint rallies. They have repeatedly described each other as friends, and in February, Modi became among the first world leaders to visit Trump in the White House.

But six months later, a sobering reality has hit New Delhi, with Trump punishing it with a 25 percent tariff on imports and near-daily threats to increase those levies further because of India’s oil purchases from Russia, as he tries to force Moscow into accepting a ceasefire in its war on Ukraine.

An India-US trade deal remains elusive, and bilateral relations are on a slippery slope, according to some experts. “US-India relations are at the lowest point in decades,” Biswajit Dhar, a trade economist who has worked on several Indian trade deals, told media. Dozens of other countries, including neighbours India has tense ties with, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, are facing lower tariffs.

Addressing a public rally on Saturday, Modi took a defiant stance against Trump’s tariff assaults. “The world economy is going through many apprehensions. There is an atmosphere of instability,” Modi said.

“Now, whatever we buy, there should be only one scale: we will buy those things which have been made by the sweat of an Indian,” he added.

Modi’s comments come as Indian officials reportedly reject stopping the buying of Russian crude.

Trump has blamed India’s buying of Russian oil for helping finance Moscow’s war on Ukraine. “They [Indians] don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine,”  Trump said Monday. “Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”

So, how did we get here? What are the growing points of discord between India and the US? And could India give up on Russian oil to save its relationship with the US?