BEIJING (news agencies) — China’s annual major political event gets underway this week, bringing together the nation’s top leaders and thousands of provincial leaders to endorse decisions already made by the all-powerful Chinese Communist Party.
The meetings and gathering during the National People’s Congress, expected to last for about a week, are still important. The rubber-stamp parliament retains an important function: to signal the priorities of the government for the coming year and to disseminate instructions to party members and officials across the country.
The messaging from leadership appears unchanged from previous years — stay the course on fostering innovation while also spurring domestic consumption.
The question will be how they balance those two goals, and will it be enough to reinvigorate the economy? And to what extent will the government buffer the impact of what might be another phase in the U.S.-China trade war?
This year also marks the end of China’s current 5-year plan, and experts will be looking for clues on the government’s priorities for the next, 2026 to 2030 plan.
Here is what to watch for at this year’s event:
The National People’s Congress kicks off with Premier Li Qiang, China’s top economic official, announcing the economic growth target for the year.
Analysts expect it to come in at around 5% – holding the same target as the previous two years, and slightly lower than the 5.5% target in 2022. This would be no small feat considering China is still grappling with a sluggish real estate sector and lackluster consumer spending.
Another uncertainty is trade tensions with the U.S. under President Donald Trump, who last month slapped a 10% tariff on Chinese imports while an additional 10% comes into effect on Tuesday. Forecasters at the International Monetary Fund are projecting a lower 4.6% growth rate this year.
A commentary last Friday from the official Xinhua News Agency indicated that priority would be placed on boosting domestic demand and promoting innovation in science and technology.
There’s also anticipation of more government support for the private sector to fuel growth.
Chinese President Xi Jinping met in February with business leaders, including Alibaba founder Jack Ma and Huawei CEO Ren Zhengfei, signaling support for the private sector at the highest level of leadership. A draft bill is also to be deliberated during the Congress over making a fairer and more equitable business environment for the private sector.
China has already released a slew of measures to prop up the economy. Much of these have fallen short of hopes for a bigger stimulus, and analysts are tempering expectations on what to expect from the Congress.
“I would not expect anything … to come out that will really meaningfully shift that policy away from industrial policy and towards boosting consumption in meaningful, sufficient ways,” said Jacob Gunter, lead analyst for the economics research team at the Mercator Institute for China Studies.
Instead, experts say leaders are staying the course on pushing for innovation that would boost China’s self-reliance.
The purpose of the economy is no longer to improve household incomes and expand the middle class, Gunter said.
“This is not a development-oriented economy,” he said. “It’s a geopolitically oriented economy, and technology and industry are way more important for that.”
Li is expected to touch on foreign policy and Taiwan, but more attention will likely be on Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
His annual press conference, to be held later in the week, will be closely watched to decipher China’s stance on U.S.-China relations under Trump. After the first 10% tariffs in February, China retaliated with a 15% tariff on American coal and liquefied natural gas, as well as 10% on crude oil, agriculture machinery and large-engine cars.
“Beijing’s response to Trump’s initial 10% tariffs was measured — restrained enough to signal openness to negotiations yet firm enough to demonstrate its willingness to escalate if necessary,” Neil Thomas and Jing Qian wrote in a report for the Asia Society Policy Institute.
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