By the time the Oscars wind around after months of other award shows and constant handicapping, the prizes can feel almost predetermined.
Not this year.
Sunday’s 97th Academy Awards has more potential drama than any recent year, with many possible outcomes in the top categories, including best picture, best actor and best actress. After the first frontrunner and lead nominee, “Emilia Pérez,” became engulfed in controversy, “Anora” ran the table with a trio of precursor guild honors. Then “Conclave” swooped in to win at the BAFTAs and Screen Actors Guild Awards.
Who will come out on top? media Film Writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions.
Nominees: “Anora,” “The Brutalist,” “A Complete Unknown,” “Conclave,” “Dune: Part Two,” “Emilia Pérez,” “I’m Still Here,” “Nickel Boys,” “The Substance,” “Wicked”
COYLE: Like any diagnosis this flu season, there are a lot of options. It would seem to be down to either “Anora” (PGA, DGA and WGA wins) or “Conclave” (BAFTA, SAG), but it’s close enough that a shocker is in the realm of possibility. The film industry is in a strange, mixed-up place and we have had a strange, mixed-up awards season to suit it. Ultimately, I think Sean Baker’s “Anora” wins. I trust the top prizes from the BAFTAs and SAGs less than the Producers Guild – especially when the PGA opts for a scrappy indie over glossier studio productions. Plus, “Conclave” is a nice little movie, but best picture? Not to get my vestments in a twist, but come on, “Anora” is a masterpiece.
BAHR: I kind of want to say “Conclave” just to hedge our bets. Maybe I’ll talk myself into it by the end of this, but its recent wins over “Anora” do make a certain amount of sense (in retrospect) for those particular voting bodies — actors and, well, Brits. It’s also the establishment choice in many ways, but one that also feels aligned with the very international membership of the academy. I agree that “Anora” is a masterpiece, but maybe “Conclave” is the consensus – everyone’s second choice.
Nominees: Demi Moore, “The Substance”; Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”; Mikey Madison, “Anora”; Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”; Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
BAHR: This race feels so up in the air after Mikey Madison’s BAFTA win and “Anora’s” rise in general. Madison gave such a great and thoughtful speech there, praising her collaborators with the kind of specificity that doesn’t often happen on those stages, and it occurred before Oscar voting had ended. There’s even the possibility that Fernanda Torres ekes out a win. But I’m still leaning towards Demi Moore, who won at SAG, as the sentimental favorite — a fun, wild performance and a great comeback narrative. Plus, this award hasn’t really gone to an ingenue since Emma Stone’s “La La Land” win.
COYLE: This should be close, but I also give the edge to Moore. She’s taken the lead thanks to the fearlessness of her performance in “The Substance” and arguably the season’s most convincing narrative. Still, I’d favor Madison, who absolutely commands “Anora.”
Nominees: Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist”; Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown”; Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”; Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”; Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
COYLE: Brody had been on cruise control for much of the season, but I think Chalamet takes it. Even before his big victory at the SAG Awards, the academy’s fondness for the widely liked “A Complete Unknown” needed somewhere to go. This Oscars could end up best remembered as the (deserving) coronation of Hollywood’s crown prince.
BAHR: Oh great, because I’m sticking with Brody. I’m glad Chalamet won at SAG, it’s makes sense that his fellow actors would want to honor his commitment to that role and film. Five years in your 20s IS forever and it would be very neat for him to win at the same age Brody did for “The Pianist” (and in fact become the youngest winner ever). But considering the academy is a voting body that doesn’t often give this prize to young men, I think they go with the classic choice.
Nominees: Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”; Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”; Ariana Grande, “Wicked”; Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”; Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez”
BAHR: Zoe Saldaña seems to have this prize in the bag. She has continued winning major awards, the BAFTA and SAG included, despite the “Emilia Pérez” dust up. Like Moore, she has a strong narrative working in her favor and has given good, passionate speeches throughout and people seem savvy enough to not “punish” her for her co-star’s actions. It does seem a little unfair considering the fact that her character has more screentime than the person campaigning for lead. But that’s a conversation for another time.
COYLE: Saldaña is a lock. She’s terrific in “Emilia Pérez,” and manages to stay so grounded and natural amid such tonal extremes. A word, also for Grande and her best actress nominee co-star Erivo. Neither seems destined to win anything, but they both deserve some kind of accolade for their tireless promotion of “Wicked” and months of patient, understanding head nodding at whatever has been thrown their way.
Nominees: Yura Borisov, “Anora”; Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain”; Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”; Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”; Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
COYLE: Culkin wins this in a walk. His parade of acceptance speeches has curiously been both a regular reminder that his character in “A Real Pain” wasn’t exactly a stretch, and: So what? As good as this category is — the whole group is stellar — Culkin has won it through his natural manic charisma.
BAHR: It’s Culkin for sure and I’m very excited for his freewheeling speech. Is this a good time to wonder why awards campaigns tend to get so tunnel visioned around one performance at the complete exclusion of their counterpart? Probably not, but I see you Jesse Eisenberg and Margaret Qualley.
Nominees: Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”; Sean Baker, “Anora”; Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”; James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown” Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
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