Will Paul Kagame win a landslide in Rwanda election? Here’s what to know

After a low-key election campaign that featured just two parties, 9.7 million Rwandans are eligible to vote next week to choose a president and members of parliament who will serve for the next five years.

President Paul Kagame, who has led the country for the 30 years since the 1994 genocide, is largely unchallenged and is expected to once again win the election.

Despite polling dismally in the last presidential election, two opposition candidates with little support and weak campaign structures are again facing off against Kagame and his ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) coalition. Several other candidates were barred from running.

The vote is being held amid escalating tensions between Rwanda and the neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Kinshasa accuses Kigali of sponsoring the M23 rebel group, which is waging war in the eastern DRC. Kigali denies this.

Voting is also taking place after an asylum seeker deportation deal that Kagame’s government has pursued with the United Kingdom collapsed. After the Labour Party won UK elections last week, new Prime Minster Keir Starmer announcing that the agreement would be scrapped.

Here’s all that you need to know about Rwanda’s elections:

The incumbent is the favourite to win what would be his fourth term in office under the banner of the dominant RPF. Kagame first came to power after leading the rebel, Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Forces, which seized power from the Hutu government, effectively ending the 1994 genocide that killed 800,000 to one million Tutsis and moderate Hutus. Kagame was considered the de facto leader as vice president from 1994 until 2000 when he officially became president.

He has since won by a landslide in three elections that rights groups and observers said were not fair. In the last one in 2017, the vote count gave him more than 98 percent of the ballots. Although a previous constitutional clause barred him from running more than twice, Rwandans voted in a 2015 referendum to lift those limits, paving the way for Kagame to remain in power until 2034. The referendum also shortened presidential terms from seven to five years.

Kagame’s rule has been criticised by rights groups as “autocratic”. His is accused of muzzling speech and stifling political competition. Despite this reputation, the president continues to enjoy popular support.