Russian advances in Donetsk threaten Ukrainian lines of supply

During the last week of July, Russia mounted its largest assaults in eight months in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region, seizing a string of settlements in an apparent bid to cut off key supply routes and force a mass Ukrainian retreat.

At the same time, Ukraine scored a high number of hits on Russian energy infrastructure and occupied Crimea, suggesting that its strategy of degrading Russian air defences is working.

Russian assaults focused on central and southern Donetsk – from areas west of Bakhmut, which fell in May last year, to areas west of Avdiivka, which was lost in February, down to areas west of the city of Donetsk, which pro-Moscow separatists have controlled since 2014 – a line about 130km (80 miles) long.

Russian forces have pressed their advantage in these areas to prevent Ukraine from digging entrenched defences, and they have inched forward for months, swallowing settlements at a staggering cost to their own troops.

British military intelligence estimated that Russian casualties in May and June reached record daily highs of about 1,200 – about 70,000 soldiers for just those two months. media was unable to verify the claims.

In the past week, the tempo of Russia’s westward crawl has increased and included two battalion-sized assaults that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, said Russia has not mounted since the battle for Avdiivka in October.

It appeared that Russia’s strategy was to cut off two highways – one supplying Ukraine’s garrison in Vuhledar in southern Donetsk and the other supplying garrisons in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk in central Donetsk.

Russia mounted a battalion-sized assault involving 200 soldiers southwest of Donetsk city on July 24. It was supported by 11 tanks, 45 armoured fighting vehicles and 12 motorcycles. Its apparent purpose was to seize the T-0524 highway supplying Vuhledar. Ukrainian forces stopped it, destroying six of the tanks, seven armoured vehicles and all 12 motorcycles.

Then on Monday, Russia tried again, mounting another battalion-sized assault in the same area, this time with 10 tanks, 47 armoured vehicles, 10 motorcycles and a buggy. Again Ukraine stopped the assault, striking eight tanks, a dozen armoured vehicles and nine of the motorcycles plus the buggy.