The assassination of a senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, (IRGC) in Syria could be a provocation by Israel to draw its existential enemy, Iran, into a broader regional war, Middle East political analysts and observers have said – but it remains to be seen what form Iran’s promised retaliation will take.
Brig Gen Razi Mousavi, known as Sayyed Razi, was killed in a reported Israeli strike in Syria’s capital Damascus on Monday. He was the most senior commander in the IRGC to be assassinated since the killing of Quds Force Gen Qassem Suleimani in 2020 by a targeted US drone strike in Iraq.
The well-established senior commander had been operating in and out of Syria for at least 15 years – by some accounts about 30 – and was responsible for “supporting the resistance front in Syria,” according to an IRGC statement released following his death.
Retaliation would be exacted “without a doubt” against Israel, whom the IRGC attributed to the killing, the statement added.
Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai, said, “Syria is the bridge Iran uses to provide weapons and logistical support to Hezbollah in Lebanon.”
“He was high-ranking, influential, and a big loss for the Iranians,” Mr Kahwaji added. “They can appoint a replacement, but the years of experience he had will make his loss felt for a while.”
Although Iran promised retribution for the commander’s killing, “It’s highly unlikely we’ll see Iran directly retaliate,” according to Mr Kahwaji.
“Iranians have created proxy groups as a projection force in order for it to be able to stay out of any wars. If the Iranians retaliate, it will be through its proxies, never directly against Israel or the US because they do not want to be directly involved in war with either one.”
Iran’s proxies – commonly known as the Axis of Resistance – have rallied to militarily support ally Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, following the group’s attack on Israel October 7.
The alliance of Iran-backed militant groups across the Middle East has choreographed numerous attacks against Israel since then. The Lebanese Hezbollah group has waged a cross-border conflict with Israel from Lebanon and, in some cases, Syria, seeking to divert its enemy from its invasion of Gaza. In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis have attacked Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea – demanding an end to Israel’s war in Gaza and the delivery of life-saving food and medical supplies to the enclave. In Iraq, militant groups have stepped up attacks on US military installations in the country.
But the pressure has done little to sway Israel from its assault on Gaza.
In a speech before Israel’s Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant hinted at potential action against Iran.
United Arab Emirates Dirham Exchange Rate
