BEIRUT (news agencies) — For the first time in 50 years, the question of how Syria will be governed is wide open. The end of the Assad family’s rule is for many Syrians a moment of mixed joy and fear, of the total unknown.
The insurgency that swept President Bashar Assad out of power is rooted in Islamist jihadi fighters. Its leader says he has renounced past ties to al-Qaida, and he has gone out of his way to assert a vision of creating a pluralistic Syria governed by civil institutions — not dictators and not ideology.
But even if he is sincere, he is not the only player. The insurgency is made up of multiple factions, and the country is riven among armed groups, including U.S.-backed Kurdish fighters controlling the east. Remnants of the old regime’s military — and its feared security and intelligence services — could coalesce once again.
Foreign powers with their own interests have their hands deep in the country, and any of them — Russia, Iran, Turkey, the United States and Israel — could act as spoilers.
Syria’s multifaith and multiethnic population sees itself poised on a moment that could tip either into chaos or cohesion. The country’s Sunni Muslims, Shiite Alawites, Christians and ethnic Kurds have often been pitted against each, whether by Assad’s rule or a 14-year civil war.
Divisions from the conflict run deep, and many worry about revenge killings, whether against former figures of Assad’s state or — more frightening — whole communities seen as backing the old system.
The civil war displaced half of Syria’s prewar population of 23 million. Many who fled are watching developments closely to determine whether the time has come to return.
Right now there are only questions.
In the short period following Assad’s abrupt fall, rebel leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, formerly known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has sought to reassure Syrians that the group he leads — Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS – does not seek to dominate the country and will continue government services. He has spoken of setting up a decentralized governance system.
Government officials who remained in Damascus as Assad fled — including Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali — have met with the rebels to discuss the transfer of power.
The Al Jazeera television network reported Monday that HTS had decided to appoint the head of the “salvation government” running its stronghold in northwest Syria, Mohammed Al-Bashir, to form a transitional government. There was no official confirmation.
Details on what form the government will take have been scarce.
The rebels likely did not expect to be saddled with running an entire country when they launched their offensive against Aleppo less than two weeks ago, said Qutaiba Idlbi, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs. The rapid fall of Damascus and the melting away of police and military, left security challenges, he said.
The only existing framework for a transition is no longer relevant. U.N. Security Council Resolution 2254 had called for a political process involving both Assad’s government and opposition groups.
“Everyone’s saying, especially rebels on the ground, ‘That framework is no longer applicable, because there is no longer a regime. We’re not going to give the regime in politics what they lost through military means,’” Idlbi said.
So far, public sector workers have not heeded calls from the caretaker prime minister to go back to their jobs — causing troubles in places like airports, borders and at the Foreign Ministry, said Adam Abdelmoula, the U.N.’s humanitarian coordinator for Syria.
“I think it will take a couple of days — and a lot of assurance on the part of the armed groups — for these people to return to work again,” he said. In the current chaos, U.N. workers have had difficulty accessing the country, and that has hampered distribution of humanitarian aid, he said.
The insurgents have sought to reassure Syria’s religious minorities that they will not be targeted, despite HTS’ fundamentalist Sunni Muslim origins.
So far the civil peace seems to be holding. The insurgents have appeared disciplined, working to keep order, with no sign of reprisals. Experts say only time will tell what post-Assad Syria will look like.
“Everyone’s still willing to really engage, really work with others,” said Haid Haid, a consulting fellow at the Middle East and North Africa program of Chatham House. “That sort of positive atmosphere is crucial, but it might not last long.”
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