Not by design, Egypt could benefit from the crisis, with donors showing empathy for the nation’s economic vulnerability
Live updates: Follow the latest news on Israel-Gaza
The Gaza war presents Egypt with a host of daunting challenges at a time of vulnerability caused by its economic woes.
Some of these challenges, analysts told The National, would bedevil Egypt long after the guns in Gaza fall silent, reshaping its regional policies and redefining relations with other Middle East countries.
“In its entirety, the situation is not in Egypt’s favour,” said a senior Egyptian diplomat.
One example, he said, is the attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels on Red Sea shipping, which cut Egypt’s revenue from the Suez Canal in January by half compared to last year.
“It’s possibly the worst direct result of the war for Egypt and that’s not just because of the slump in revenue from the canal,” said the diplomat.
“The attacks have created a new situation in the Red Sea that could repeat in the future.”
Another example of the impact of the war on Egypt is that it has shown Cairo to be in command of few or no means of influencing Israel, its partner in a 1979 peace treaty that is widely seen as a cornerstone of regional stability.
Egypt has successfully mediated truces to end wars between Israel and Hamas, the militant group that has ruled Gaza since 2007. It was part of a mediation effort that included Qatar and the US that produced a week-long truce and a detainee and hostage swap between them in late November.
They have since tried and failed to mediate a similar deal.
The war began with an attack on Israel by Hamas on October 7 that left 1,200 dead and another 240 taken hostage.
Israel’s response was a bombardment of Gaza that has to date killed nearly 29,000 people, displaced 85 per cent of the enclave’s 2.3 million people and laid waste to many built-up areas.
“The Gaza war has shown the weakness of the cards held by Egypt … moreover, our economic situation leaves us with limited options and that, one way or another, determines our policies,” the diplomat said.
Egypt is the first Arab nation to sign a peace treaty with Israel. Relations between the neighbours have been lukewarm for the better part of the 44 years since the US-sponsored treaty was signed.
They have been fraught with tension since the Gaza war broke out, with Cairo recently warning that it would suspend the treaty if Israel began a ground offensive in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city on the Egyptian border.
An Israeli offensive there, Egypt contends, would send many of the more than one million displaced Palestinians in Rafah across the border into Egypt, a scenario Cairo believes would hurt the Palestinian cause and add one more hurdle to any future peace negotiations as Israel would not allow their return.
Wary of combat operations on its border with Gaza and Israel, Egypt has in recent weeks strengthened its forces there, and increased reconnaissance flights and ground patrols.
On Sunday, the Defence Ministry declassified documents on its military operations against Israel in 1973 – the last of the four full-fledged wars the two countries have fought since 1948.
United Arab Emirates Dirham Exchange Rate
