GCC ranks 6th globally in goods trade volume

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Foreign Trade Report for 2023, issued by the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat), highlighted the region’s significant position in global trade.

The GCC ranked sixth globally in the volume of trade in goods index, accounting for 3.4 per cent of the total global trade in goods. The region’s trade volume reached $1.5 trillion in 2023, reflecting a 4.0 per cent decrease compared to 2022.

The GCC also ranked third globally in the merchandise trade balance index in 2023, with a value of $163.7 billion, compared to $381.3 billion recorded in 2022, which marked a decrease of 57.1 per cent.

In commodity exports, the GCC ranked fifth worldwide, contributing 3.1 per cent of the global total with exports valued at $0.8 trillion in 2023, down 14.5 per cent from 2022. Conversely, the region ranked ninth in total merchandise imports, accounting for 2.7 per cent of global imports at a value of $0.7 trillion in 2023, reflecting a 13.4 per cent increase from the previous year.

The report further detailed that GCC trade in goods (excluding intra-trade) decreased by 4.0 per cent, amounting to $1,482.4 billion in 2023, compared to $1,482.4 billion in 2023.

Commodity exports fell from $962.6 billion in 2022 to $823.1 billion in 2023-a decline of $139.5 billion or 14.5 per cent. However, commodity imports rose to $659.3 billion in 2023, up from $581.3 billion in 2022, an increase of $78.0 billion or 13.4 per cent.

Oil exports of the GCC countries decreased by 20.5 per cent in 2023 to reach $525.5 billion, compared to $661.1 billion in 2022.

As for the main trading partners, the GCC-Stat explained that China ranked first on the list of main trading partners in the commodity trade volume index in 2023. The value of the commodity trade volume amounted to $297.9 billion, surpassing its closest competitor, India, which ranked second with a value of $150.4 billion, with a difference of $147.6 billion.

China is also the GCC Countries’ most important trading partner. It ranked first in terms of the commodity exports index by importing 19.2 per cent of the total Gulf commodity exports to global markets in 2023, at a value of $158.3 billion compared to $190.4 billion in 2022, with a decrease of 16.8 per cent.

China also ranked first among the GCC countries’ main trading partners in the 2023 Total Merchandise Imports Index. It exported 21.2 per cent of the GCC’s total merchandise imports in 2023, with a value of $139.6 billion compared to $126.0 billion in 2022, recording an increase of 10.8 per cent over the previous year.

Meanwhile the forecasts of the Statistical Centre for the Cooperation Council for the Arab Countries of the Gulf (GCC-Stat) indicate that the gross domestic product (GDP) of the GCC countries constant prices will grow by 3.7 per cent in the current year 2024.

The Centre expects growth to continue at a higher pace in 2025 to reach 4.5 per cent, then it will stabilise at a rate of 3.5 per cent in 2026.

The GCC-Stat forecasts that this expected growth for the years 2024, 2025 and 2026 is attributed to the increase in oil production in the GCC countries, especially in light of the fact that the OPEC+ alliance is gradually liberalising production quotas since the second half of this year 2024.

The growth will continue in particular with the development of new gas fields in the region, in addition to the accelerated pace of economic recovery in sectors related to transportation, tourism and infrastructure projects supported by expansionary policies at the level of public finance.

The initial forecasts issued by the GCC-Stat also indicated an improved growth in the non-oil sector in the GCC Countries to register a growth rate of 4.5 per cent during the current year 2024, while maintaining this growth rate with an increase of 3.3 and 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 2026 respectively.

This growth will be driven by an accelerated increase in private sector activities, especially in the tourism, transportation, storage and retail sectors. In addition, infrastructure projects in the GCC countries will contribute to enhancing growth in related sectors and stimulating growth in the private sector.

The forecasts also emphasise that the GCC countries’ continued implementation of economic diversification strategies during the years 2024 – 2026 will lead to significant growth in key sectors, most notably renewable energy, technology, innovation, and manufacturing industries.