Yemeni rebels launch anti-shipping attacks despite 150 air strikes as intelligence gathering improvements sought
America and Britain are struggling to establish the size of the Houthi missile stockpile after stopping their surveillance of Yemen eight years ago, military analysts have said.
The allies have paid a high price for failing to maintain intelligence operations in Yemen as they struggle to find targets to strike while the Iranian-backed rebels continue their attacks on shipping.
It was unclear precisely how many weapons the Houthis have been provided with by the Iranians or have built themselves, said Fabian Hinz, a military expert at the IISS think tank.
“The question is, did the Iranians ship only small batches in order to increase their leverage [with the Houthis] or did they build up an arsenal with strategic depth?” Mr Hinz told media.
“Another question is, how much of their weapons are locally produced?”
A lack of detailed intelligence has made it “near impossible” to determine how badly the Houthis’ missile stockpile has been damaged by US-led air strikes, said military analyst Tim Ripley.
But US official reporting has stated it has struck missile launchers before they were fired, suggesting that real-time intelligence gathering has improved.
After the end of the campaign against Al Qaeda in 2015, the US withdrew much of its surveillance over Yemen, making it unclear how large a stockpile the Iranians provided to the Houthis.
Intelligence gathering has been made more difficult by the size of the country, which is about equal to that of France, and the Houthis’ skills at camouflaging their weapons, developed over earlier wars on the peninsula.
“They are trying to find mobile weapon targets in a very large country starting from scratch, and with no boots on the ground, so it’s near impossible to judge the extent of damage,” Mr Ripley said.
And having lost two advanced MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance drones over Yemen, the US does not have the benign surveillance environment it had in Afghanistan, “which makes it rather challenging”, he said.
In the 150 allied attacks since the first on January 12, the US and British have hit 120 missile launchers, more than 10 surface-to-air missiles, 40 storage and support buildings and 15 drone storage building, according to US figures.
“One thing to note is the number of Centcom [US Central Command] announcements about targeting launchers just before launch does indicate both good intelligence and good targeting capability,” Mr Hinz said.
“But the Houthis have become adept at hiding them so you only have a very short time window for striking before launch.”
The RAF Typhoon fighter-bombers and US F-18A Hornets are able to give accurate “battle damage assessment” as they have to fly over their targets before releasing their bombs, the flight of which is video-recorded.
Since starting their Red Sea and Gulf of Aden campaign on November 19, the Houthis have launched at least 57 attacks on naval and commercial shipping.
But the increased number of warships in the Red Sea, bolstered by the arrival in the past few weeks of the EU force of six naval vessels, has also meant that even when the Houthis managed to launch strikes, fewer are getting through.
However, they were still able to hit the British-registered Rubymar bulk carrier last month with anti-ship missiles.
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