Putin may well get what he wants in Ukraine

After the long telephone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, which followed on the heels of US-Ukrainian talks in Jeddah last week, the war in Ukraine seems to be entering its final stages.

Both Moscow and Kyiv appear to agree with Trump’s pursuit of a peace settlement, though the details of their positions regarding the specifics remain hazy.

Kyiv has agreed to Washington’s proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire followed by peace talks. Freezing the conflict before starting peace talks was not what Ukraine had wanted, but the prospect of losing more territory, infrastructure, human lives, and – very likely – American support, has brought it onboard.

Russia, for its part, has agreed to suspend missile attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure for 30 days, while continuing discussions for a full-fledged ceasefire. Earlier, Moscow expressed concern not only about the logistics of implementing the ceasefire and guarantees to prevent violations, but also about what comes after.

The caution is due to the fact that Russia has an advantage on the battlefield, which it is not very keen to lose before the framework of a settlement is set in stone. In any case, Russian officials sounded very upbeat about the prospects of settlement after the Trump-Putin call.

If the ceasefire negotiations move forward, the question that arises is whether Putin is likely to get all that he wanted in February 2022 when he launched the brutal all-out invasion of Ukraine.

The rough framework of a realistically attainable peace settlement is clear to all sides by now. Moscow has stated repeatedly that the peace deal is to follow the outline of the Istanbul agreements that were developed by the Russian and Ukrainian delegations in the spring of 2022 but were eventually ditched by Ukraine under British and American pressure.

These agreements envisaged Ukraine’s military neutrality, a cap on the size of its army and measures to protect Russian speakers living in Ukraine.

After three years of war, Moscow now wants Kyiv to recognise the loss of four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia – which Russia formally proclaimed its territory although it has not fully occupied any of them yet. It is possible, however, that the Kremlin will walk away from its maximalist demand of Ukraine withdrawing from the unoccupied parts of these regions.