Under Trump, US strikes on Somalia have doubled since last year. Why?

Mogadishu, Somalia – Ending the United States’ “forever wars” was a major slogan of Donald Trump’s 2024 election campaign, during which he and many of his supporters spoke out against American resources and lives being put to waste in conflicts across the globe.

But on February 1, a mere 10 days after being inaugurated for a second time, President Trump announced that the US had carried out air strikes targeting senior leadership of ISIL (ISIS) in Somalia. “These killers, who we found hiding in caves, threatened the United States,” his post on X read. This marked Trump’s first military action overseas, but it wouldn’t be his last.

In the time since, the US has provided weapons and support to Israel in its wars in Gaza and across the Middle East; it has launched strikes on Yemen; and even attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. At the same time, in the Horn of Africa, US strikes have more than “doubled” since last year, according to US Africa Command (AFRICOM).

AFRICOM, which oversees US military operations on the continent, has carried out at least 43 air strikes in Somalia in 2025, according to think tank New America, which tracks strikes using AFRICOM data. More than half of those, which are conducted in coordination with Somalia’s federal government, targeted IS-Somalia, the ISIL affiliate in northeast Puntland state, while the remainder targeted al-Shabab.

The uptick in US air strikes targeting IS-Somalia appears to be linked to growing concerns that the group has become a hub for regional and global ISIL affiliates in terms of financing and attacks, according to US officials.

At the same time, experts also note the recent worrying gains being made by al-Shabab in Somalia.

But why is this a war the “Make America Great Again” Trump administration has an increasing hand in – especially given that decades of US policy in Somalia have been marred by controversy, disaster and failure?

“Ever since Black Hawk Down, Somalia was a no-go zone for the US,” said Abukar Arman, a Somali analyst and former special envoy to the US, referring to the failed 1993 US military intervention in Somalia during which 18 US troops and thousands of Somali civilians were killed.

“That changed after 9/11 when Somalia became one of the key theatres of so-called GWOT [global war on terror]. That political facade has three objectives: It justifies US sustained lethal drone attacks in the public psyche; it enables the US to guard its geopolitical interests in the Horn of Africa; [and] it enables American predatory capitalists to engage in economic exploitation,” Arman told media.