What will win at the Oscars? AP’s film writers set their predictions

Ahead of the 96th Academy Awards on March 10, media Film Writers Jake Coyle and Lindsey Bahr share their predictions.

Nominees: “American Fiction”; “Anatomy of a Fall”; “Barbie”; “The Holdovers”; “Killers of the Flower Moon”; “Maestro”; “Oppenheimer”; “Past Lives”; “Poor Things”; “The Zone of Interest.”

BAHR: It will be “ Oppenheimer.” It’s not just because it’s won alltheothermajorawards: This is a recognition that’s a long time coming for Christopher Nolan and Emma Thomas, who have been nominated for best picture twice before, for “Inception” and “Dunkirk,” but whose influence and impact on the industry and even the Oscars has extended far beyond a simple nomination tally (including leading a charge to save film). But perhaps it was worth the wait to get this moment with a film like “ Oppenheimer.”

COYLE: It’s “Oppenheimer” all the way, and the only question is how many awards it ultimately walks away with. (I’ll say eight.) But let’s hear it for one of the best best-picture fields in recent memory. There’s not really a clunker in the mix this year. The nominees run from epic to indie, blockbuster to arthouse. You’ve got more comedy than usual, too, including “Barbie” and her wicked twin, “Poor Things.”

Nominees: Annette Bening, “Nyad”; Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”; Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”; Emma Stone, “Poor Things.”

COYLE: On a night that should be kinda predictable, this is going to a nail-biter. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) are seemingly in a dead heat, with odds-makers splitting them evenly. I’m going to give the edge to Gladstone, who’s coming off a big win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and has history riding on her potential victory. She would be the first Native American to win an Oscar, a prospect that “Saturday Night Live” joked has her fellow nominees saying, “Please don’t let us win.” Stone, though, is absurdly good in “Poor Things” and her chances can’t be dismissed. She won at the BAFTAs and international Oscar voters are increasingly tilting close races.

BAHR: You know it’s a tough year when the other three very accomplished and utterly committed performances aren’t even in the conversation. I want Gladstone to win, but something is telling me that Stone is going to be the one up that stage (and no, it’s not Searchlight or her publicists whispering in my ear).

Nominees: Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”; Colman Domingo, “Rustin”; Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”; Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”; Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction.”

BAHR: This is going to be one of the bigger hold your breath moments on Oscars night as we wait to hear if best actor goes to Paul Giamatti or Cillian Murphy. Neither have won this award before and both gave undeniably great and memorable performances, both of which involved copious drinking and different kinds of regret, but only one of which gave the actor the chance to melodically slur “Monet, Manet, Picasso” and then, well, fart. I do think that Murphy, who has not won any Oscars, caught the wave, however, and will get the trophy for his singularly internal portrayal of an impossibly complex giant.

COYLE: As much as we’d all like to see a knock-down, drag-it-out fight between Murphy and Giamatti — two famously nice guys and much-admired character actors getting a leading-man moment — that tete-a-tete just never materialized. Murphy won at both the SAGs and the BAFTAs, and I think the “Oppenheimer” headwinds are just too strong for Giamatti to pull it off.

Nominees: Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”; Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”; America Ferrera, “Barbie”; Jodie Foster, “Nyad”; Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers.”

COYLE: This race has been a lock for months, making Randolph all but certain to cruise to her first Academy Award. Out of the three pitch-perfect performances in Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” (the others being Giamatti and newcomer Dominic Sessa), the sensitivity of Randolph’s grieving mother has made her an Oscar shoo-in.

BAHR: Indeed, and let’s hope that whoever is reading the winner card gets the pronunciation of her name correctly (unlike some others this season). Psst…it’s DAY-Vine.

Nominees: Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”; Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”; Robert Downey Jr. “Oppenheimer”; Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”; Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things.”

BAHR: It’s just going to be an “Oppenheimer” night and we can all assume that Robert Downey Jr. will be the one bounding up to the stage to accept. The last time he was nominated was in 2008, for “Tropic Thunder,” and his win will not just be for playing the vindictive Lewis Strauss but, kind of like Jamie Lee Curtis last year, an overdue acknowledgement of his lifetime in entertainment. Plus, he gives good speech and I’m sure he’s saving the best for last.

COYLE: Honestly, what a strong group of nominees. Downey will win his first Oscar, which no one would say he doesn’t deserve (though I would have handed it to him for “Kiss Kiss Bang Bang”). De Niro, almost half a century after winning this award for a little movie called “The Godfather, Part II,” is back again, doing his best work in years. Brown, who gives “American Fiction” such a jolt, is as good as anyone working today. Ruffalo, great in everything, should someday soon get the “overdue Oscar” treatment Downey is receiving this year. And Gosling might be our best comic actor. He’s going to lose but only because his Ken is TOO good.

Nominees: “Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet; “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Martin Scorsese; “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan; “Poor Things,” Yorgos Lanthimos; “The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer.

COYLE: : I feel like there’s someone missing here? Yes, this is the site of the most talked-about snub, for “Barbie” director Greta Gerwig. Gosling may still be shrieking in horror, but the hubbub has mostly subsided. (Still, Gerwig should have been nominated.) Either way, this is Nolan’s award, for sure. It will be his first directing Oscar, a belated coronation for one of Hollywood’s most respected auteurs. To see how seldom these chances can be, you need look no further than fellow-nominee Scorsese. He’s only won it once. (Cue Gosling shriek.)

BAHR: It’s such a great group, even so. And Nolan will surely be walking to the engraving station with this trophy in hand as well.

Nominees: “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”; “The Eternal Memory”; “Four Daughters”; “To Kill a Tiger”; “20 Days in Mariupol.”