Hezbollah has several concerns about Cyprus, analysts say, and can ‘attack’ it in more ways than one.
Hezbollah’s threat to retaliate against Cyprus if it helps Israel attack Lebanon has highlighted the Mediterranean island’s delicate geopolitical position, analysts say.
Cypriots were taken by surprise when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah mentioned them in a June 19 speech, saying Cyprus would be considered “part of the war” if Israel used Cypriot airports and bases in an attack on Lebanon.
“The Cypriot government should be careful,” he said.
For many, the announcement was a shock.
President Nikos Christodoulides told reporters: “Cyprus is not involved, in any way, in the military conflicts,” in response to Nasrallah’s comments.
“I don’t understand it,” said Angelina Pliaka, a lawyer in the capital Nicosia. “We have no involvement, and we don’t support Israel.”
The prospect of war between Israel and Hezbollah has inched closer throughout Israel’s devastating eight-month war on Gaza as the Lebanese group exchanged fire with Israel in a bid to divert Israel’s resources from its Gaza campaign.
Analysts have long warned that a full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah would drag in countries and players across the region.
The Hezbollah threat is “a stark reminder to the people of Cyprus where the country is located and how easily situations can be derailed,” Harry Tzimitras, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Cyprus Centre, told media.
Cyprus, known more for its beaches than its proximity to warzones, is the most easterly state in the EU and lies just 160km (100 miles) from the coast of Lebanon.
In recent years, it has sought to use that position to act as the EU’s bridge into the Middle East, building close ties with Israel and Egypt while maintaining channels of communication with Iran.
“Cyprus has been quite close to Israel since 2010-11,” Tzimitras said.
“In particular, the Netanyahu governments have been capitalising on Cyprus becoming a close ally in political, financial, energy and military terms, as well as a friendly country, in their relations with the EU.”
Cyprus’s position
Despite these ties, Cyprus has tried to keep its distance from the conflicts in Gaza and on the Israel-Lebanon border.
Christodoulides had also pointed to the humanitarian corridor, saying: “Our country is absolutely not involved in any way, and is not part of the problem.”
In his June 19 speech, Nasrallah pointed out that Israeli forces had conducted exercises – to simulate invading Lebanon – in Cyprus two years ago because the island’s hilly terrain resembles southern Lebanon.
In a speech shortly after those exercises in 2022, he made no mention of those drills.
Hezbollah’s threat “likely relates” more to the British bases in Cyprus than anything else, Jack Watling, senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said.
Cyprus was a British colony until 1960 and when it won its independence, the United Kingdom retained two sprawling military bases there.
They were vital in an exodus of British citizens from Lebanon during Israel’s war with Hezbollah in 2006.
Its air force used one of the bases, RAF Akrotiri, in the invasions of Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011, as well as in air strikes against ISIL (ISIS) in Iraq in 2014.
In January, the RAF used the base to launch strikes against the Houthis in Yemen in an attempt to deter the group from attacking ships they deemed Israel-related.
Investigative media outlet Declassified UK reported in May that Britain’s military sent 60 flights to Israel since it began bombing Gaza in October, mostly from Akrotiri.
London’s Ministry of Defence has refused to reveal what those flights were carrying.
Declassified UK also said the base was secretly being used by the US to transport weapons to Israel.
The British government has also refused to say whether its Cyprus bases are being used to facilitate bombing Gaza, or whether Israeli fighter jets have landed there.
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