The US strikes back? How Biden might retaliate to drone attack in Jordan

Analysts say President Joe Biden is caught between trying to ward off Iran and avoiding full-scale war

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President Joe Biden has promised to retaliate after a drone attack claimed by Iranian-linked militias killed three US soldiers in Jordan but his response could lead to war with Iran if he does not tread carefully, analysts have warned.

After previous attacks on its troops, the US has responded by striking Iran-linked targets in Iraq and Syria with the aim of deterring further violence. A large strike on similar targets is now considered likely after Mr Biden vowed to “hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing”.

But some in US Congress are calling for a more extreme response, such as strikes against military targets within Iran.

Such a move could lead to a wider regional war that the US does not want, analysts warned.

“A hit on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps [IRGC] inside Iran would invite another strike on US troops, producing a cycle” said Mark Pyrus, a security and defence analyst focused on Iran.

“Where then do we go? The targeting has the potential for being pivotal.”

Washington has faced similar dilemmas, including repeated decisions of how to respond to attacks on US troops by the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah militia in Iraq while maintaining relations with the Iraqi government and avoiding war with Iran.

Against a backdrop of regional tension inflamed by the Israel-Gaza war, Mr Biden faces a difficult balancing act.

Here are some of his options for retaliation, based on previous US military action.

A large strike against Iran-backed militia bases in Iraq and Syria is likely and would be in line with previous US retaliations.

The US has repeatedly carried out similar strikes since militias resumed attacks on US forces in both those countries in 2017.

The biggest target is the militia stronghold of Jurf Al Sakhar in Iraq. The US has repeatedly bombed the town, most recently hitting Kataib Hezbollah “headquarters, storage and training locations for rocket, missile and one-way attack UAV capabilities” on January 23.

The town, which was emptied of residents in 2014 by Kataib Hezbollah in a move condemned by human rights groups, has been taken over by the group and allied militias. It was one of the first targets authorised by Mr Biden in 2021.

Surrounded by palm groves and ringed by checkpoints patrolled by militias, the no-go zone for the official Iraqi army includes training sites for the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) and, allegedly, foreign fighters.

More importantly, it houses research, development and construction sites for Kataib Hezbollah’s missile and drone programmes.

But the Americans would face problems with this option: because of the sporadic nature of the US-militia clashes, Kataib Hezbollah will have had time to disguise targets, build shelters and take other protective measures.

Air strikes there in the past have not had lasting damage. For example, after an Iran-backed militia attack in March 2020 that killed two US soldiers and one British medic at Al Asad airbase in Iraq, the US struck back at the site.