The wave of Israeli strikes that killed hundreds of Palestinians across the Gaza Strip early Tuesday was the culmination of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to get out of the ceasefire with Hamas that he agreed to in January.
Since the start of the war, Netanyahu has faced dueling, possibly incompatible pressures: Families of the hostages want him to cut a deal with Hamas to free them, while his far-right coalition partners want to continue the war with the aim of annihilating the militant group.
On Tuesday, he appeared to cast his lot with the latter — and U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has backed Netanyahu’s decision to unilaterally walk away from the ceasefire it took credit for brokering.
Both Israel and the United States blame the renewed hostilities on Hamas’ refusal to release more hostages before negotiations on ending the war proceed — which was not part of the ceasefire agreement. Israel has accused Hamas of preparing for new attacks, without providing evidence. The militant group has denied those allegations.
Hamas — which has yet to respond militarily to the Israeli strikes — has spent weeks calling for serious talks on the ceasefire agreement’s second phase, which calls for the release of the remaining living hostages in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a lasting ceasefire.
Those talks were supposed to begin in early February. Now they may never happen.
The agreement reached in January, under pressure from the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump one, called for a phased ceasefire aimed at freeing all the hostages abducted in Hamas’ Oct 7, 2023, attack and ending the war it caused.
Under the first phase, which ran from Jan. 19 to March 1, Hamas released 25 Israeli hostages and the bodies of eight others in return for nearly 1,800 Palestinian prisoners, including senior militants serving life sentences for deadly attacks. Israeli forces pulled back to a buffer zone, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians returned to what remained of their homes, and there was a surge of humanitarian aid.
Each side accused the other of violations, and Israeli strikes killed dozens of Palestinians the military accused of engaging in militant activities or entering no-go zones. But the truce held.
Still, the second phase was always seen as far more difficult.
Through months of negotiations, Netanyahu had repeatedly cast doubt on it, insisting Israel was committed to returning all the hostages and destroying Hamas’ military and governing capabilities — two war goals that many believe are irreconcilable.
In a TV interview last June, Netanyahu cast doubt on the possibility of a lasting ceasefire before Hamas is destroyed. “We are committed to continuing the war after a pause, in order to complete the goal of eliminating Hamas. I’m not willing to give up on that,” he said.
On Jan. 18, the eve of the ceasefire, he said “we reserve the right to return to war if necessary with the backing of the United States.”
Agreeing to a permanent ceasefire would almost certainly plunge Netanyahu into a political crisis that could end his nearly uninterrupted 15-year rule.
Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had threatened to leave the coalition if Netanyahu progressed to Phase 2 instead of restarting the offensive. Opposition parties have promised to support him in any agreement that brings back hostages, but his coalition would still be severely weakened, making early elections likely.
By resuming the fighting, Netanyahu ensured Smotrich’s continued support. After the strikes, the Israeli leader regained another far-right partner, Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose party had bolted in January over the ceasefire but returned to the coalition Tuesday.
Beyond the political jockeying, Netanyahu’s stated goal of annihilating Hamas would have almost certainly eluded him had he stuck with the ceasefire agreement.
Hamas survived 15 months of Israeli bombardment and ground operations that killed over 48,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and destroyed much of Gaza. When the truce took hold, the militant group immediately reasserted its rule.
There’s no agreement on who should govern Gaza after the war, and even if the Western-backed Palestinian Authority were granted nominal control, Hamas would have strong influence on the ground and could rebuild its military capabilities.
For many Israelis, especially Netanyahu’s hawkish base and far-right allies, that would look like defeat. It would add to the criticism he already faces over security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attack, in which Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducted 251.
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