In its recent statement, the Gulf Cooperation Council declared that “Iranian attacks have also led to a sharp loss of confidence by the Council states in Iran, which requires Iran to take the initiative to make serious efforts to rebuild trust”. While rebuilding trust in our region is a lofty and essential objective, and while Iran has always taken the initiative in this regard, it is imperative for all sides to recognise their share in the current regrettable state of affairs.
The unprovoked aggression against Iran was the product of blatant miscalculations and mistakes. It was predicated on the illusion that Iran had been weakened and thus incapable of resisting and responding forcefully to a massive onslaught by two nuclear powers, aided and abetted by regional actors. Policymakers in Washington and Tel Aviv and in some regional capitals convinced themselves that a swift campaign of economic pressure, sabotage, covert operation, decapitation and indiscriminate war crimes could break the Islamic Republic and leave it with little opportunity to respond. They were wrong. Iran’s response, measured yet resolute, demonstrated not only its military resilience but also its capacity to react on a scale that reverberated far beyond the region.
Our Arab neighbours in the GCC had their grave share in these miscalculations – and Iran may have played a role in misleading them. For five decades, they consistently stood on the wrong side of history – supporting Saddam Hussein’s aggression and even assisting Israel to intercept Iranian missiles launched in self-defence following Israel’s murder of an Arab leader in Iran. Some of them actively encouraged the United States to take military action against Iran, even asking the latter to add Iranian naval forces to its list of targets. In return, they allowed the United States to establish military bases within their territories to launch and logistically support many of its acts of aggression and war crimes against Iran. They even publicly sided with the United States as it committed war crimes against Iran, reminding Iranians of the sad days when these Muslim brothers and sisters sided with Saddam Hussein as he used chemical weapons against Iranian and Iraqi Kurdish civilians. Extensive human and financial damages were inflicted upon the people of Iran through these illegal attacks, which were deliberately launched and sustained from the sovereign territories of our Arab neighbours. Even as it became unmistakably clear that the United States was preparing to commit systematic war crimes against Iran’s civilian population — including strikes on populated areas and critical infrastructure — they indeed proved unwilling to prohibit or even restrict the use of their land, airspace and military facilities for such war crimes against their Muslim brothers and sisters in Iran.
Some of our Arab neighbours in the GCC mistakenly hoped that Iran would either be incapacitated and unable to respond, or would continue to turn a blind eye to their complicity in an aggression that explicitly targeted its territorial integrity and even its very existence. That illusion proved tragically wishful, and Iran had no other choice but to reluctantly respond – still in a calibrated and restrained fashion – to the attacks launched or logistically supported from the territories of Council states.
To move forward, it is therefore imperative for our neighbours to disabuse themselves of such distorted perceptions of the past and their misplaced proclamations of victimhood. A transitional moment now confronts our region. The conflict has exposed the fragility of imported security architectures and the enduring strength of Indigenous power and regional security networking. Rather than doubling down on yesterday’s alliances, our brothers and sisters in the region will be well-advised to pause and reassess. The right lessons from this episode point towards a future grounded in self-reliance, regional agency and an inclusive security network.
First, Iran and its Arab neighbours are here to stay. Iran has weathered sanctions, foreign-sponsored terrorism, hybrid warfare and even decapitation for nearly five decades. Its population, though diverse, has repeatedly shown it will rally around the flag when faced with foreign intervention. Tehran possesses the means to counter existential threats, and its geography grants it leverage that can impose devastating consequences on global markets if pushed too far. Iran’s exercise of restraint for far too long created the misimpression that the Strait of Hormuz could be open to all while Iran was essentially deprived of it due to illegal and immoral US sanctions – from which our neighbours immensely benefit – building their fortunes on the unlawful miseries imposed on their Iranian brethren.
More importantly, Iran’s power is not imported or artificial; it is home-grown, rooted in unchangeable variables: a millennial history of an enduring and continuous civilisation-state, a rich and cohesive culture, a youthful and educated population and an instinct for survival sharpened by centuries of resisting external domination. No amount of foreign pressure can alter these foundations. Those neighbours who continue to bet against this reality can only blame themselves for ignoring geography, history and demography.
Second, the “security-and-development model” pursued by several Arab states has proven deeply flawed. For years, the formula was simple: purchase security by spending lavishly on procuring the most sophisticated US weapons systems and hosting US military bases – and even Israeli intelligence and terrorism centres – and invite foreign investment under the umbrella of that imported security. The model delivered neither genuine security nor the perception of stability required for sustainable economic growth.
The perception that some Arab capitals sided with the United States and Israel against a fellow Muslim country earned them infamy across the Islamic world. That reputational damage was later compounded by the US president’s crude and condescending rhetoric directed at them. Now, reports that Washington is contemplating forcing our neighbours to foot the bill for a war launched at their expense and on Israel’s behalf only confirm the cynicism at the heart of the arrangement. The greatest mistake would be to double down on this failed model once the guns fall silent. Continuing to tie national security and economic futures to external patrons who use their bases as a staging ground for aggression against neighbours and treat them as obedient clients is a recipe for perpetual dependence and recurring humiliation.
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